PuntersEdge Tools
Expected Value Calculator Australia
Calculate EV from decimal odds and your assessed win probability. A positive EV means the bet has edge; a negative EV means you're paying the bookmaker's margin.
Results will appear here.
How to use this calculator
Expected Value (EV) measures the long-run average profit or loss per dollar staked when a bet is repeated many times. It is calculated as:
EV = (Win Prob × Net Win) − (Loss Prob × Stake)
- Positive EV means you have a long-run edge at this price.
- Negative EV means the bookmaker has the edge.
- Fair odds is the decimal odds that would give exactly zero EV at your estimated probability.
The key input is your win probability estimate. A model — like the PuntersEdge methodology — is typically required to estimate this reliably. Using the bookmaker's own implied probability will always show negative EV because their margin is built in.
For stake sizing based on your edge, use the Kelly Criterion Calculator.
18+ only. This calculator is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee profit. Gambling can be addictive — please gamble responsibly. Gambling Help: 1800 858 858.