Expected Value Calculator Australia

How to use this calculator

Expected Value (EV) measures the long-run average profit or loss per dollar staked when a bet is repeated many times. It is calculated as:

EV = (Win Prob × Net Win) − (Loss Prob × Stake)

• Positive EV means you have a long-run edge at this price.
• Negative EV means the bookmaker has the edge.
• Fair odds is the decimal odds that would give exactly zero EV at your estimated probability.

The key input is your win probability estimate. A statistical model is typically required to estimate this reliably — the odds data API supplies the market prices and de-vigged consensus probabilities such a model starts from. Using the bookmaker's own implied probability will always show negative EV because their margin is built in.

For stake sizing based on your edge, use the Kelly Criterion Calculator.

Working with live odds?

This calculator is an educational guide. If you want the prices behind it, PuntersEdge publishes live odds from 15 Australian racing bookmakers as a REST/JSON API — next-to-go racing, runners, and best-odds comparison, with every response carrying its own age.

See API pricing · Developer docs · Get a free API key — 3,000 credits/month, no card.