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πŸ“Š Transparency first

How We Calculate Results

Every number on this site comes from a defined, consistent process. Here's exactly how tips are logged, settled, and counted.

The Core Rules

1. Only qualifying tips are counted

A tip qualifies for the public record only if the model confidence is β‰₯ 65%. Tips below this threshold are not published and not counted. This threshold has been fixed since day one and has not been changed retroactively.

2. Every qualifying tip is logged β€” wins and losses

There is no selective logging. If a tip qualifies (β‰₯ 65% confidence) it goes into the public record regardless of result. Losers are not deleted. The record is not pruned. You can download the full CSV at any time and count the rows yourself.

3. Staking is standardised by confidence tier

All P&L is measured in units, not dollars. One unit = 1% of a notional starting bank.

BANKER (85%+ confidence) = 3 units staked
STRONG (75–84% confidence) = 2 units staked
VALUE (65–74% confidence) = 1 unit staked

Stakes are fixed at time of tip publication and not changed after the fact.

4. Odds used are Betfair exchange prices at time of tip

P&L is calculated against the Betfair back price available at the time the tip was generated (typically the morning market price). These are exchange prices with no bookmaker margin. Return on a winning bet = (odds βˆ’ 1) Γ— stake. Return on a losing bet = βˆ’stake.

5. Settlement is automatic and verified

Results are pulled from the sports database after match completion. An automated settlement verifier cross-checks tip outcomes against actual match scores. Open real-money Betfair bets are shown separately on the record page until they settle β€” they are not pre-counted as wins.

6. Stats are recalculated from scratch each sync

Strike rate, ROI, units P&L, and monthly breakdowns are all derived fresh from the underlying tip database on every sync cycle (approximately every 15 minutes). There are no manually edited headline numbers.

The Formulas

Strike Rate

Strike Rate = Wins Γ· (Wins + Losses) Γ— 100

Settled results only. Void/abandoned matches are excluded. A 55% strike rate means 55 out of every 100 settled tips were correct.

Units P&L

Units P&L = Ξ£ (pnl per tip)
where pnl = (odds βˆ’ 1) Γ— stake [WIN] or βˆ’stake [LOSS]

Cumulative profit/loss in units. A result of +201.9u means that following every qualifying tip at the specified stake would have returned 201.9 units of profit over the tracked period.

ROI

ROI = Total Units P&L Γ· Total Units Staked Γ— 100

Return on investment as a percentage of total stake. Total units staked = 3u Γ— BANKER tips + 2u Γ— STRONG tips + 1u Γ— VALUE tips.

What We Don't Do

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Delete losing tips from the public record

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Cherry-pick which tips to include in stats

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Change the confidence threshold retroactively to improve past stats

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Count open unresolved bets as wins before they settle

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Manually adjust headline stats

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Use best-possible odds (e.g. opening lines) to inflate returns

Verify It Yourself

The full tip database is available as a public CSV download. Every row, every result.

⬇ Download Full CSV View Live Record

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for informational purposes only.

πŸ”ž 18+ only Β· Tips are analysis only, not financial advice Β· No results are guaranteed Β· Gamble responsibly
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