The NRL season runs from March to October, giving punters 27 rounds of regular season action plus finals. Our XGBoost model is trained on 10 years of NRL data and evaluates each game across 29 features including form, ELO ratings, rest days, key player availability and venue history. Home teams win just 53.4% of NRL games — barely above coin-flip. The real edge comes from identifying when the market has mispriced a team's chances. Key factors our model weights heavily: - ELO rating differential (dynamic skill rating updated after every game) - Form over last 3 and 5 games - Rest days since last match (back-to-back weeks hurt significantly) - Key players missing from injury reports - Venue home win percentage A 55-60% win rate in NRL is very good. Our model targets the 65-75% confidence band where it has historically been most accurate.