🏉 NRL Round 11 — Model Overview
Round 11 of the 2026 National Rugby League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent NRL record: 4W/6L (40% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our NRL Round 11 Tips
For each Round 11 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 2 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round 11 Fixture Tips
Roosters vs Titans
📅 Friday 08 May at Polytec Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Cowboys vs Eels
📅 Friday 08 May at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Dragons vs Knights
📅 Saturday 09 May at WIN Stadium
Rabbitohs vs Sharks
📅 Saturday 09 May at Accor Stadium
Sea Eagles vs Broncos
📅 Saturday 09 May at 4 Pines Park
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Storm vs Wests Tigers
📅 Sunday 10 May at AAMI Park
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Raiders vs Panthers
📅 Sunday 10 May at GIO Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Sharks vs Bulldogs
📅 Friday 15 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins
📅 Friday 15 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Wests Tigers vs Sea Eagles
📅 Saturday 16 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Roosters vs Cowboys
📅 Saturday 16 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Eels vs Storm
📅 Saturday 16 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Titans vs Knights
📅 Sunday 17 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Warriors vs Broncos
📅 Sunday 17 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Panthers vs Dragons
📅 Sunday 17 May at Suncorp Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Staking Guide for Round 11
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every NRL Tip This Season
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