🏉 NRL Round 4 — Model Overview
Round 4 of the 2026 National Rugby League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent NRL record: 3W/1L (75% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our NRL Round 4 Tips
For each Round 4 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 14 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round 4 Fixture Tips
Roosters vs Panthers
📅 Friday 20 March at Allianz Stadium
Storm vs Broncos
📅 Friday 20 March at AAMI Park
Knights vs Warriors
📅 Saturday 21 March at McDonald Jones Stadium
Sharks vs Dolphins
📅 Saturday 21 March at Ocean Protect Stadium
Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers
📅 Saturday 21 March at Polytec Stadium
Eels vs Dragons
📅 Sunday 22 March at CommBank Stadium
Cowboys vs Titans
📅 Sunday 22 March at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Sea Eagles vs Roosters
📅 Thursday 26 March at 4 Pines Park
Warriors vs Wests Tigers
📅 Friday 27 March at Go Media Stadium
Broncos vs Dolphins
📅 Friday 27 March at Suncorp Stadium
Bulldogs vs Knights
📅 Saturday 28 March at Accor Stadium
Panthers vs Eels
📅 Saturday 28 March at CommBank Stadium
Cowboys vs Storm
📅 Saturday 28 March at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Raiders vs Sharks
📅 Sunday 29 March at GIO Stadium
Titans vs Dragons
📅 Sunday 29 March at Cbus Super Stadium
Staking Guide for Round 4
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every NRL Tip This Season
Members receive the full NRL card every round delivered directly to their Telegram DMs at 7am AEST on game day — alongside NBA, EPL, LaLiga, Bundesliga and Tennis coverage. $29/month. No lock-in. Cancel anytime.
Or join the free channel for one tip per day: t.me/ThePuntersEdgeAU
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Set a deposit limit before you bet. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.